2026: A Cycle Where Stability Outweighs the Rebound in the Office Market

This year, Mexico’s office market will continue to recover, but the focus will no longer be on a rebound, rather on the quality of absorption and the profitability of spaces.

Data indicate that the recovery is expressed less through volume and more through stability: steady demand, constrained supply, and prices that have stopped falling as a result of structural adjustments, not cyclical momentum.

“Our expectation for 2026 is that office absorption in major markets such as Mexico City will continue to concentrate in the same industries that have sustained demand throughout the market’s stabilization process,” explains Alejandro Delgado, Country Manager Mexico at SiiLA.

Over the past 12 months, most absorption has been concentrated in five sectors: real estate, finance, healthcare, business services, and technology. That base will continue to lead demand, supported by stable activity in urban logistics, consumer sectors, and light manufacturing, driven by administrative and back-office functions linked to the industrial sector.

At the same time, the gradual return to the office under hybrid models is reinforcing tenant retention and space absorption. Today, most companies operate with two to three in-office days per week, and several global corporations—such as Amazon, Google, and Hewlett-Packard—are already anticipating a greater weight of in-person work over the medium term.

That demand, however, does not translate into a uniform market recovery.

“This is not a market of generalized absorption, but one of selection,” notes Alejandro Delgado. “Demand is concentrated in spaces that solve for location, operational efficiency, and user experience; the rest will continue to face adjustments.”

That selection process coincides with a prolonged contraction in new supply.

Since 2023, the delivery of new office space in key markets such as Mexico City has declined steadily, reaching its lowest level in more than a decade in 2025. The slowdown reflects higher construction costs, restrictive interest rates, reduced investor appetite for offices, and the priority given to the industrial sector in capital allocation.

“In this context, even moderate absorption has been sufficient to continue pushing vacancy lower. The expectation for 2026 is that this trend will persist gradually and consistently, not due to an exceptional rebound in demand, but because of constrained supply.”

That gradual tightening in vacancy rates is already reflected in prices.

In nominal terms, office rents have returned to levels close to those in 2019; however, in real terms, they remain lower due to the high cumulative inflation over the past five years. This means the economic value per square meter is lower today, even if headline figures appear stable. In addition, a significant portion of Class A and A+ inventory remains priced in dollars, meaning that some recent movements reflect currency volatility more than structural changes in the market.

Ultimately, as prices trend upward, the market is leaving behind the rebound narrative and entering a phase of structural consolidation, where value is no longer defined by how many square meters are occupied, but by which assets can sustain demand, pricing, and tenant permanence in a more demanding environment.

For more office data and analysis, visit SiiLA Market Analytics or contact us at contacto@siila.com.mx.