7 Global Brands in 12 Months: Mexican Retail Sees Constant Turnover

Even so, turnover has not always been permanent, as nearly 3% of the brands observed disappeared and subsequently returned to the markets analyzed³. More revealing is that the arrival of new brands does not appear to translate into an equally rapid exit.

According to SiiLA, the estimated probability that a brand appearing for the first time would remain in the market after one year was approximately 93%, and after three years, 74%⁴. In other words, new brands have shown high retention, contributing to stable shopping center occupancy, although that stability continues to rest primarily on brands that were already present and account for most of the space associated with new occupancies.

In that sense, the data indicate that since 2021, brands appearing for the first time accounted for roughly one-third of the space associated with new occupancies in the shopping centers analyzed. Put another way, nearly seven out of every 10 square meters were occupied by brands that had already been present in the market⁵.

Taken together, these findings help put into perspective a market characterized by constant renewal rather than one driven by a succession of new arrivals. In that context, the significance of cases such as Chipotle, Mixue or Crumbl Cookies lies not only in adding new names to the market, something that happens quite frequently, but in what happens next: whether they can remain and turn an initial opening into a broader presence.

To learn more about Mexico’s retail market performance, visit SiiLA Market Analytics or email us at contacto@siila.com.mx.

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¹ An observable first appearance is defined as the first quarter in which a brand is identified in the consolidated inventory of shopping centers monitored by SiiLA in Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Monterrey. Each brand is counted only once per quarter, regardless of the number of locations or markets in which it is present. The initial observation stock and first appearances that cannot be distinguished from additions resulting from changes in inventory coverage are excluded. Therefore, an observable first appearance does not necessarily represent a brand’s first operation in Mexico.

² A confirmed exit is defined as a brand ceasing to be observed in the consolidated universe analyzed and remaining absent for at least two consecutive quarters. Temporary absences lasting only one quarter are not classified as exits. Disappearances near the end of the series for which insufficient subsequent information is available are not classified as confirmed exits.

³ A reentry is defined as the reappearance of a brand following an absence previously classified as a confirmed exit. The measurement corresponds to the consolidated universe of shopping centers monitored in Mexico City, Guadalajara and Monterrey; therefore, a brand’s exit from and subsequent return to a particular city does not constitute a reentry if the brand remained active in any of the other markets analyzed.

⁴ Retention probabilities were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method based on observable first appearances, excluding the initial observation stock and observations whose addition cannot be distinguished from changes in inventory coverage. A confirmed terminal exit constitutes the exit event; brands that remained active at the end of the series or whose exit could not be confirmed were treated as censored observations. The percentages represent estimated retention probabilities rather than simple proportions of active brands relative to total entries.

⁵ For the space analysis, a new occupancy corresponds to the appearance of a brand at a property where it was not present in the previous quarter. It is classified as a new brand only when that occupancy coincides with the brand’s first observable appearance in the universe analyzed; subsequent occupancies by previously observed brands are classified as existing brands. The share is calculated based on the total space associated with new occupancies identified during the period.