Digital Fulfillment Grew. Its Real Estate Footprint Grew Much More

However, facility expansion was far from evenly distributed among companies. Mercado Libre accounted for 67% of the net increase in space between 2019 and 2024, and Amazon for another 20%. At the same time, the occupier base diversified with players such as Shein, iMile Delivery, AliExpress, 99 Minutos, Shopee and Envíopack, although their contribution to growth was considerably smaller.

The expansion of e-commerce’s physical footprint was therefore highly concentrated. Despite the arrival of new participants, Mercado Libre and Amazon accounted for nearly 88% of all Digital Fulfillment space observed in both markets in 2024, a share that increased to 91% by the second quarter of 2026.

Together, these two factors align with a shift in how e-commerce uses industrial space. In a logistics network, what matters is not only how much space there is, but also where it is located and how it is distributed. Factors such as broader geographic coverage, shorter delivery times or the proximity of inventory to consumers could therefore help explain the proliferation of facilities observed in both markets.

Although the data analyzed do not establish the extent to which these factors explain the observed expansion, the strategies of the leading operators offer clues in that direction. Amazon introduced same-day delivery in Mexico City in 2016, and Mercado Libre followed suit in 2021 in Mexico City, Guadalajara and Monterrey. The latter now even allows cutoff times and coverage areas to be configured by zone for same-day deliveries.

Whatever the role of these strategies in the observed expansion, more recent trends show that its form began to change. While a proliferation of facilities dominated the 2019-2024 period, between 2024 and 2025, space increased 50%, driven not only by a 14% increase in the number of occupancies but also by a 32% increase in their average size. In other words, larger facilities began to accompany the network's expansion. A year later, growth lost momentum: space increased just 6%, with 5% more occupancies and virtually no change in average size, meaning the increase came almost entirely from new occupancies.

These variations show that the relationship between economic activity and physical space is not static either. A larger real estate footprint can result from more facilities, larger facilities or a combination of both, and the weight of each mechanism can change over time. Knowing how much value e-commerce generates therefore helps gauge its economic growth, but does not by itself indicate how its real estate footprint will evolve or what form it will take.

Looking at both trajectories, however, makes it possible to identify when they begin to diverge. National value added and the space observed in two markets are not equivalent measures of the same universe, but comparing them can reveal differences in their evolution that can then be examined through the real estate structure to understand what is changing behind them.

To learn more about the trends transforming the commercial real estate market, visit SiiLA Market Analytics or write to us at contacto@siila.com.mx.

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¹ The analysis considers only Greater Mexico City and Monterrey because these are the markets for which SiiLA has a comparable historical Digital Fulfillment series dating back to 2019. Space figures correspond exclusively to these two markets and are compared with the national gross value added of e-commerce (VABCOEL) published by INEGI.

² The ratio is calculated by dividing occupied Digital Fulfillment space in Greater Mexico City and Monterrey by national VABCOEL expressed in constant 2018 values. The two variables cover different universes and geographic areas, so the indicator does not represent a national real estate intensity measure, but rather the observed relationship between the two series over the period analyzed. Its evolution is descriptive and does not in itself imply a causal or predictive relationship.

³ The contribution of both factors was estimated using a symmetric Shapley-type decomposition of the change in total space, separating the effect of the number of occupancies from that of their average size. This method symmetrically allocates the effect of their joint variation between the two factors.