The market now operates in step with a state economy advancing at a more contained pace. By the end of 2025, Baja California’s GDP stood roughly 9% above its pre-pandemic level, but with reduced momentum. The secondary sector posted mild contractions of around –0.6%, with manufacturing declining by approximately –0.5%, particularly in automotive and metalworking segments. By contrast, the tertiary sector grew about 1.5%, supported by foreign trade, cross-border flows, and formal services.

The correction has not altered market fundamentals. The productive base remains intact, supply is moderating with greater discipline, and demand is adjusting without disruption. In this environment, pressure on rents has eased but not disappeared. According to SiiLA data, prices remained stable after a cumulative compound annual growth rate of nearly 9% over the past five years, even amid higher vacancy rates.

Tijuana is not an outlier within the region. Ciudad Juárez and Mexicali show similar trajectories, with vacancy levels that double the regional average observed since mid-2022 (3.4%). The simultaneity of these movements points to a shared adjustment, whose stabilization will depend less on local factors and more on the evolution of the industrial and trade cycle along the border region.

This is particularly relevant for 2026, as geopolitical uncertainty linked to the United States and the USMCA is expected to keep demand at a more subdued pace, while new supply continues to be delivered with greater discipline. In that scenario, rents are likely to move in line with inflation and the broader economic cycle, and vacancies should continue to converge toward levels closer to their historical average.

For investors and developers, 2026 will require a precise reading of the cycle and disciplined capital allocation, where asset quality and financial structure once again become decisive.

More information at SiiLA Market Analytics or at contacto@siila.com.mx.