From Boom to Discipline: Tijuana Redefines Its Industrial Cycle

Tijuana enters a phase of shared adjustment across northwestern Mexico. Demand moderates, supply becomes more disciplined, and rents hold. The market converges toward a new equilibrium point.

Hyundai Motor Mexico, led by Edgar Carranza, is one of the companies with the largest industrial footprints in Tijuana. Photo: SiiLA.

By: SiiLA News

02/16/2026

Tijuana is no longer moving at the extraordinary pace seen a few years ago. Between 2021 and 2023, absorption consistently outpaced new supply, compressing vacancy below sustainable levels. Today, the cycle has turned, and far from being an isolated case, the shift reflects a regional pattern across northwestern Mexico. Looking ahead to 2026, the question is not whether the correction will continue, but at what level the market will stabilize.

That turn is already visible in the data. Since 2023, demand for industrial space has decelerated faster than supply, and the market has moved from an environment of extreme scarcity to one where turnover has regained relevance. The ratio of space vacated to space occupied—which at one point reached six to one—has gradually narrowed to near parity, resulting in negative net absorption by the end of 2025. At the same time, the vacancy rate reached 7.5%, far from the near-zero levels observed two years earlier.

Corporate decisions sit behind this transition. Companies have prioritized efficiency and consolidation, displacing the expansionary momentum of the previous cycle. That shift has altered sector dynamics: traditional drivers—manufacturing and consumer products, which account for nearly 60% of inventory—have stopped expanding, while segments tied to logistics and services have grown at moderate rates, not exceeding 6% annually. Smaller-scale activities, such as agro-industrial uses and government-related space, posted significant growth, but represent just 0.6% of the market and do not alter the broader trend.

The gap between supply and demand widened starting in 2023.

The market now operates in step with a state economy advancing at a more contained pace. By the end of 2025, Baja California’s GDP stood roughly 9% above its pre-pandemic level, but with reduced momentum. The secondary sector posted mild contractions of around –0.6%, with manufacturing declining by approximately –0.5%, particularly in automotive and metalworking segments. By contrast, the tertiary sector grew about 1.5%, supported by foreign trade, cross-border flows, and formal services.

The correction has not altered market fundamentals. The productive base remains intact, supply is moderating with greater discipline, and demand is adjusting without disruption. In this environment, pressure on rents has eased but not disappeared. According to SiiLA data, prices remained stable after a cumulative compound annual growth rate of nearly 9% over the past five years, even amid higher vacancy rates.

Tijuana is not an outlier within the region. Ciudad Juárez and Mexicali show similar trajectories, with vacancy levels that double the regional average observed since mid-2022 (3.4%). The simultaneity of these movements points to a shared adjustment, whose stabilization will depend less on local factors and more on the evolution of the industrial and trade cycle along the border region.

This is particularly relevant for 2026, as geopolitical uncertainty linked to the United States and the USMCA is expected to keep demand at a more subdued pace, while new supply continues to be delivered with greater discipline. In that scenario, rents are likely to move in line with inflation and the broader economic cycle, and vacancies should continue to converge toward levels closer to their historical average.

For investors and developers, 2026 will require a precise reading of the cycle and disciplined capital allocation, where asset quality and financial structure once again become decisive.

More information at SiiLA Market Analytics or at contacto@siila.com.mx.

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