Industrial Vacancy in Aguascalientes and Guanajuato Hits Record Lows: Can the Market Keep Up in 2025?

In some areas of the Bajío region, such as Aguascalientes and Guanajuato, industrial buildings are being leased before the construction dust even settles. In fact, the speed at which spaces are being absorbed has pushed vacancies to their lowest level since SiiLA began tracking the market.

The impact is tangible. In Aguascalientes, finding an available square meter is a matter of patience and luck: the vacancy rate has dropped below 0.6%, a 133-basis-point decrease in just one year. In Guanajuato, vacancy stands at 2.9%, down 33 basis points from 2023—leaving little room for new tenants.

The lack of space is not a new phenomenon. In both industrial markets, vacancies have declined for at least three years, driven by different factors at different times.

Until 2021, the shortage of new developments and steady demand naturally kept availability low. But in 2022, the market took a turn. Construction surged, and today, nearly three times more square meters are being delivered than in 2021. Just last year, Aguascalientes added over 160,000 sqm to its inventory, growing 5% from 2023, while Guanajuato added nearly 700,000 sqm, expanding 7% from 2023 to 2024. However, while supply grew significantly, demand grew even faster.

In Aguascalientes, tenant stability and low turnover have played a key role in availability trends. Few spaces become vacant, and when they do, they are quickly re-leased, further reducing vacancies. Meanwhile, gross absorption and new inventory grew similarly last year, but net absorption increased even faster.

According to SiiLA Market Analytics, for every percentage point that net absorption increased between 2023 and 2024, new inventory grew by just 0.65 percentage points. In other words, occupancy has grown more due to low tenant turnover and space reabsorption than by leasing newly built speculative developments.

Guanajuato presents a different scenario. The development of new industrial buildings has outpaced leasing activity, with every one percentage point increase in gross absorption leading to 2.31 percentage points of new inventory and 1.36 percentage points of net absorption.

Despite this surge in new supply, availability has not increased. The reason is simple: demand and investor interest have grown so much in recent years that new spaces are leased almost immediately—almost as if tenants had already been waiting for them. Proof of this is that between 2021 and 2024, gross absorption grew by 244% and net absorption by 248%, surpassing inventory growth, by 187%.