Is Mexico City’s Retail Market Saturated?

Measuring retail on a per-capita basis changes how market growth, competition and saturation are interpreted.

Enrique Güijosa, CEO of El Puerto de Liverpool, one of Mexico’s largest occupiers of retail space. Photo: SiiLA.

By: SiiLA News

06/30/2026

The Mexico City Metropolitan Area (ZMVM) concentrates more retail space than any other market in the country. However, when supply is adjusted for population, the capital no longer ranks first.

According to a SiiLA analysis based on first-quarter 2026 data, the ZMVM has 16 square meters of retail gross leasable area (GLA) for every 100 residents. That figure is below the 25 square meters recorded in the Monterrey Metropolitan Area and even slightly lower than the 17 square meters observed in Guadalajara¹.

The difference reveals that a market’s absolute size does not necessarily match the amount of supply available to each consumer. From a real estate perspective, the more retail space capable of serving a given consumer base, the greater the competition among properties and operators to attract visits and spending.

The pattern is not limited to retail space. The same trend appears when analyzing the presence of operators. While Monterrey concentrates around 25 retail companies per 100,000 residents and Guadalajara nearly 18, the ratio in the ZMVM falls to nine.

This means that in the ZMVM, a larger share of the population relies on the same pool of retail operators, resulting in a lower relative diversity of brands and retail concepts than is observed in Monterrey and Guadalajara.

Market scale can mask its relative level of development.

Nevertheless, the lower proportion of retail space and operators relative to population does not indicate a less dynamic market. On the contrary, SiiLA data show that, as of the end of the first quarter of 2026, shopping center occupancy in the region stood at 94%, above Monterrey (91%) and Guadalajara (92%).

The result is consistent with trends observed by SiiLA over recent years, characterized by a more gradual incorporation of new inventory, positive net absorption and relatively moderate turnover levels. As a result, the vacancy rate has generally declined across the country’s main retail markets.

Beyond comparisons among cities, the exercise illustrates why a market’s absolute size alone is not sufficient to assess its level of development. While the concentration of space and operators reflects a market’s scale, it does not necessarily indicate its degree of saturation. Viewed from this perspective, the relationship between retail and population helps explain not only regional differences, but also growth potential. After all, growth potential depends not only on how many square meters exist or how many companies operate in a market, but also on how many people can be served by that supply.

To learn more about commercial real estate market performance, visit SiiLA Market Analytics or write to us at contacto@siila.com.mx.

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¹ Per-capita indicators were calculated using the municipalities that make up the metropolitan areas of Mexico City, Guadalajara and Monterrey, as defined by Mexico’s Ministry of Economy, as well as CONAPO’s municipal population projections for 2026 (mid-year estimates).

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