Mexico’s Shopping Centers Are More Occupied, but Not Because Demand Is at Record Highs
- Availability in Mexico’s shopping centers is falling, although absorption remains well below its peak. Construction and vacancies play a role.
In Q3 2026, across Mexico’s major shopping center markets—Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Monterrey—more space was occupied than vacated, while relatively little new space was delivered. As a result, the vacancy rate fell to 6.7%, one of its lowest levels in six years.
According to SiiLA data, nearly 48,000 square meters were absorbed during the quarter, compared with approximately 12,000 square meters vacated and just over 22,500 square meters of new space delivered. In other words, four square meters were absorbed for every square meter vacated, and slightly more than two were absorbed for every square meter delivered.
These results represent a considerable improvement over the same quarter in 2025, with gross absorption rising 24% and net absorption increasing nearly 2.6 times. This suggests that the market’s strength depends not only on consistently attracting new tenants but also on lower turnover. In a limited-supply environment, this combination could let property owners make better use of existing investments and strengthen their negotiating position with tenants.
This possibility is consistent with rental trends. Between the third quarter of 2025 and the same period in 2026, asking rents across the three markets rose 4.3% in real terms after adjusting for inflation, and 3.1% between the second and third quarters of 2026 alone. Although these increases do not necessarily reflect the rents at which leases are signed, they show that property owners are offering space at increasingly higher rates as availability declines.
Against this backdrop, the underlying question is whether the market is experiencing an extraordinary recovery in demand for retail space or whether availability is declining primarily because less space is being built and tenants are vacating less space.
Historical data point more strongly toward the second explanation. In 2022, shopping centers across the three markets recorded their highest annual gross absorption since SiiLA began tracking them, at approximately 671,000 square meters, while new deliveries totaled nearly 383,000 square meters. Since then, both absorption and new supply have declined, although at very different rates.
By 2024, gross absorption still exceeded 337,000 square meters, while new deliveries had fallen to around 51,000 square meters. A year later, absorption fell to about 312,000 square meters, while deliveries fell to just 3,000 square meters. Thus, between 2022 and 2025, gross absorption declined 53%, while new deliveries fell by more than 99%. Adding to this supply reduction is another change that has become particularly evident in 2026.
Comparing the third quarter of 2026 with the same period in 2025 shows that 57% of the increase in net absorption can be attributed to a decline in vacated space, while the remaining 43% reflects an increase in gross absorption¹. In other words, although more space was absorbed, most of the improvement came from tenants vacating fewer square meters.
This means property owners could maintain high occupancy without an extraordinary recovery in gross absorption. At the same time, fewer new deliveries and less space returning to the market could help support asking rents, even as demand remains well below its historical peak, recorded in the third quarter of 2022.
To learn more about availability, absorption, and rental trends across Mexico’s major retail markets, visit SiiLA Market Analytics or email us at contacto@siila.com.mx.
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¹ A decline in vacated space does not necessarily mean that the same businesses are renewing their leases or staying longer, but only that they vacated fewer square meters during the period analyzed.
