Q2 2026: Vacancy Begins to Moderate Industrial Rents in Mexico

After three years of nearly uninterrupted increases, industrial rents in Mexico posted a 0.7% quarterly correction in the second quarter of 2026, although they remained 5.4% above the level recorded a year earlier. Behind the national adjustment, however, major markets began to follow different paths: while some continued to raise asking rents, others began to correct.

At first glance, the explanation might seem simple: where supply increased, rents fell; where demand continued to absorb space, rents kept rising. But the data show a less straightforward picture.

In Guadalajara, Monterrey and Tijuana, new supply exceeded absorption and rents began to adjust. Aguascalientes and Guanajuato showed the opposite pattern. In Mexico City and Saltillo, however, that pattern broke down, indicating that the supply-demand balance observed in a single quarter is not enough to explain rent movements.

Neither absorption nor new inventory, considered separately, explained those differences. After analyzing the quarterly performance of Mexico’s 12 main industrial markets across the central, northern and Bajío regions between the first quarter of 2023 and the second quarter of 2026, SiiLA found that vacancy showed the most consistent relationship with rent performance. However, it also failed to explain every case on its own.¹

The analysis also identified an inflection point near a 5.5% vacancy rate. Below that level, rent increases were more frequent; above it, they occurred less regularly, although they did not disappear. In other words, as available space increases, sustaining further rent increases becomes progressively more difficult.

That behavior also helps explain why rents react more slowly than the market’s operating indicators. Absorption and new inventory can alter the supply-demand balance within a quarter, but prices appear to respond to vacancy, which reflects the accumulated effect of those dynamics over time rather than only what occurred during a single period.