In Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Monterrey, retail continues to grow, but no longer with the slack it once had. New inventory is coming online gradually, and absorption depends less on demand momentum than on tenant turnover.

This marks a phase of greater selectivity in which growth is no longer driven by expansion, but by the ability to occupy space more effectively in terms of location, format, cost, and operator. That shift is reflected in the relationship between occupied and vacated space.

Between 2024 and 2025, the market absorbed just under two square meters for every square meter vacated, albeit with increasing irregularity. By the start of 2026, that ratio falls to 1.2, its lowest recent level, signaling an increasingly narrow margin between move-ins and move-outs.

However, this adjustment does not translate into market deterioration. The low volume of new inventory, with staggered deliveries in recent years, keeps vacancy below 8% and prevents an imbalance between supply and demand.

That balance is mirrored in pricing. According to SiiLA, average rents in the country’s main retail markets increased by about 6% between the first quarter of 2025 and 2026, reaching above 560 pesos per square meter, with no signs of a downward adjustment despite slower absorption.

Looking ahead to 2026, this pattern of slowdown and selectivity points to a shift in how space is allocated. It is no longer about more or less demand, but about who manages to absorb it first.

In this environment, speed of decision-making—not just quality—begins to define occupancy, favoring operators with scale, information, and the ability to execute quickly. The risk, however, is greater asymmetry in market stability, with turnover intensifying in more exposed formats, replacement being more limited, and availability concentrating, prolonging vacancy periods, and increasing adjustment costs. Conversely, the opportunity lies in getting ahead of that flow and capturing space before it becomes structurally more competitive.

This reconfiguration takes place in a context where household economic momentum is beginning to slow. According to INEGI data, private consumption grew by about 4.3% in 2025, but the start of 2026 already shows a slowdown—2.7% year-over-year in January—and a correction from its peak since 2018, reached in December. For the retail real estate market, this means demand persists but with less traction, narrowing the margin to sustain expansion and raising the performance threshold for each location.

Even so, market activity continues. Over the past year, for every 10 companies that left a shopping center, 13 took occupancy, allowing the tenant base to grow by around 3%.

Growth is supported by sectors such as government, tourism, personal services, and transportation and logistics, and is channeled toward formats capable of sustaining traffic and turnover, such as super-regional malls and convenience- and experience-oriented centers, where occupancy moves more dynamically, and volume concentrates in larger-scale spaces.

In the coming quarters, market performance will not depend on a rebound in demand, but on its ability to sustain occupancy in a tighter environment. Rather than anticipating a direction, the challenge will be to understand how occupancy is redistributed and which formats can capture it. To monitor these shifts in greater detail, visit SiiLA Market Analytics or contact us at contacto@siila.com.mx.