In Mexico, much of the economic debate over the past three years has centered on the path of interest rates: if they fall, credit will return; if they rise, it will contract. While that premise is reasonable, it is incomplete. Financing is not just money at a price; it is confidence subject to calculation.

In sectors where capital is locked in for years—such as commercial real estate—that calculation is anchored to the stability and duration of cash flow. For loans tied to industrial facilities, office buildings and shopping centers in Mexico, the key constraint is not limited to the rate itself but to the capacity to absorb long-term risk under a viable structure.

Data from BBVA Research based on Banco de México figures illustrate this dynamic. After reaching a historic high of 11.25% in March 2023, the benchmark rate gradually declined to 7.00% by February 2026. Yet in December 2025, outstanding consumer credit was growing 7.9% in real annual terms, while outstanding business credit rose just 0.6%, its weakest pace since April 2022.

The divergence is significant because different segments imply different risk horizons. Consumer lending typically carries shorter average maturities, while business credit supports productive investment and assets whose returns depend on extended cash flows. When bank balance sheet expansion concentrates in the former, the average duration of credit exposures across the system tends to shorten.

Construction lending reinforces that signal. In 2024, its real balance remained in contraction and showed only a moderate recovery in 2025, rising from roughly 308 billion pesos in June 2024 to 320 billion pesos a year later—equivalent to real growth of about 3.6%, according to BBVA Research. That trajectory suggests that the decline in the benchmark rate did not produce a proportional rebound in sector financing.

This is consistent with a prudential framework in which expected losses are estimated and provisioned from the outset of a transaction. In long-horizon projects—such as commercial developments—that requirement raises committed capital and increases the effective cost of financing, even in a declining rate environment.

At the same time, lending by development banks fell by nearly 3.8% in real terms in December 2025, according to Banco de México data. That trend indicates there was no sufficient offsetting expansion to counterbalance the moderation in business credit.

Taken together, the evidence suggests that the relevant shift in recent years has not centered on the nominal liquidity level but on the implicit threshold for accessing financing. For long-horizon assets, viability has come to depend less on the cost of money and more on the capital that risk requires upfront. That shift helps explain recent behavior in Mexico’s commercial real estate market.

Over the past three years, according to SiiLA data, sector growth has shown more pronounced step-downs in project starts and a visible preference for contract-backed projects over fully speculative developments.

In that context, it is consistent that some of the most visible transactions in the commercial segment have originated in the public markets. One example is FIBRA Prologis’ intention to launch a public tender offer for up to 100% of FIBRA Macquarie, backed by available credit lines and reported liquidity.

The transaction illustrates how vehicles with direct access to capital and operating scale can execute growth strategies without relying exclusively on additional bank credit, as corporate structure, financial discipline, regulatory oversight and balance sheet strength directly shape risk assessment and, in turn, long-term viability.

What is emerging is not a substitution of credit by the capital markets, but a reconfiguration of the channels through which capital flows. When risk is recognized and capitalized from the outset, scale, institutionalization and balance sheet strength cease to be ancillary advantages and become conditions of access.

Ultimately, understanding how risk is allocated is understanding how capital moves — and how the pace of market growth evolves.

For deeper data and analysis on commercial real estate performance, visit SiiLA Market Analytics or contact us at contacto@siila.com.mx.