Where Industrial Growth Is Really Concentrating in Mexico

Mexico’s industrial sector enters 2026 with moderate growth, but with internal divergence that is redefining where productive momentum is actually being generated.

Mathias Miedreich leads ZF Group, one of the ten automotive companies with the largest GLA in Mexico, which grew ≈6.7% over the past year. Photo: SiiLA.

By: SiiLA News

02/23/2026

Mexico’s industrial sector is not moving in lockstep. Production and industrial occupancy data show a selective pattern, where growth is concentrated in a handful of productive chains while the rest of the manufacturing base is barely keeping pace.

On the one hand, the manufacturing physical volume index (INEGI), compared against the 2018 base and the most recent year-over-year variation, confirms this divergence. Only certain segments—particularly those tied to exports and technology supply chains—remain clearly above their pre-pandemic levels, while a significant portion of the industrial base still operates near or below that benchmark.

The contrast is clearly visible in the levels. As of the end of 2025, the total industrial index stands just 1.7% above the 2018 benchmark, and manufacturing overall shows only moderate growth. However, when broken down by sector, the gap widens: computer and electronic components (≈23%) and electrical equipment (≈18%) post clear gains relative to the pre-pandemic period, while mining (≈-10%) and oil and gas extraction (≈-9%) remain below prior levels.

Along the same lines, subsectors such as petroleum derivatives, electronics, machinery, food and construction remain above the index average. At the same time, a broad group of traditional industries—including chemicals, wood, furniture, apparel and leather—continues to lag and in some cases posts recent declines. Industrial momentum is therefore concentrating in activities with greater production scale, external integration or relatively inelastic demand.

In the following chart, the horizontal axis reflects each sector’s structural position relative to the 2018 base, while the vertical axis captures its recent annual variation. The intersection of both dimensions distinguishes which sectors combine structural expansion with current momentum and which remain in adjustment or partial recovery phases. Those above the base level and posting positive growth concentrate today’s strongest productive traction and industrial space absorption; those still above the base but with recent declines point to maturation phases. By contrast, sectors advancing from levels still below the pre-pandemic threshold reflect cyclical recoveries, while those that remain below and are contracting mark the main pockets of structural weakness.

Industrial dispersion suggests the gap is driven more by accumulated level differences than by recent annual changes.

Evidence from the industrial real estate market points in the same direction. SiiLA data show that, as of year-end 2025, space absorption was concentrated in export manufacturing—such as electronics, vehicles and capital goods—and in domestic demand and distribution—such as consumer goods, services and logistics—, segments that have accounted for most Class A and B industrial absorption over the past five years.

Industrial absorption shows greater sector concentration than production, signaling highly targeted real estate demand.

Within this high-demand group, the automotive subsector stands out: over the past twelve months alone, it accounted for more than 1.2 million square meters absorbed, far above the rest of the sectors.

The automotive sector’s lead suggests an industrial market still anchored to specific manufacturing drivers.

The overlap is structural. In general terms, the sectors operating above their pre-pandemic levels are the same ones continuing to expand their real estate footprint. Mexico’s industrial base is thus reallocating capacity toward nodes more deeply integrated into global value chains.

In this environment, sectors already operating above their pre-pandemic levels start with a structural advantage, while lagging activities face a narrower recovery path more dependent on the external cycle.

The broader reading is more nuanced than a simple expansion or weakness cycle. Mexico’s industrial sector shows resilience in its most integrated segments, but also a less uniform productive base than in previous cycles. For investors, the signal is not one of generalized retrenchment, as the environment still offers opportunities, increasingly concentrated in segments with proven external demand, firm contracts and tangible operating advantages.

For that reason, the key challenge for 2026 will not be anticipating an abrupt turn in the industrial cycle, but rather identifying precisely where structural momentum persists and where recent expansion reflects only transitory impulses. The risk is no longer at the aggregate level of activity, but in sector dispersion, which will determine who captures the next wave of growth and who remains on the sidelines.

For more data and analysis, explore SiiLA Market Analytics or contact us at contacto@siila.com.mx.

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