300,000 sqm Ahead: Is Retail Construction in Mexico Taking Off Again?

FIBRA Danhos confirmed that by the end of this year, it will break ground on Parque Oaxaca, a shopping center expected to have more than 50,000 square meters¹ and open in 2027.

Considering the investment—around 6 billion pesos or 320 million dollars—comes from a real estate investment trust (REIT), and that these vehicles own roughly one-fifth of the gross leasable area of shopping centers in Mexico², one question arises: is retail construction in the country picking up again?

To some extent, the answer could be yes. Much will depend on whether projects progress on schedule. Still, current projections haven’t been seen in at least two years.

SiiLA data shows that between 2025 and 2026, nearly 300,000 square meters of shopping centers could be delivered in Mexico’s main retail markets: Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Monterrey.

This volume is three times that of 2023–2024. Even with delays pushing current deliveries into 2027 or 2028, the annual average would still be between 50% and 200% above the previous two-year period, depending on project progress.

In the next twelve months alone, Punto Basílica in Aragón, at about 60,000 square meters, could be completed. The expansion of Antara Fashion Hall, currently 68% finished, may be ready in the last quarter of 2025, adding roughly 46,000 square meters in Polanco. And projects like Paseo Xochimilco and Coapa, which will add just under 140,000 square meters in southern Mexico City, could finally be completed after a decade in planning.

While the coming years will bring new deliveries, projected volumes are moderate compared to 2022 or earlier, when giants exceeding 100,000 square meters opened, such as Distrito La Perla in Guadalajara, or Mítikah and Parque Tepeyac in Mexico City.

The difference, however, lies not in the number of projects but in their scale. The trend is leaning toward compact, specialized complexes designed for local experiences in middle- to lower-middle-class markets—not just high-income enclaves—reinterpreting the luxury of the last decade’s large-scale developments into open formats where shopping and entertainment blend into a single experience, under an omnichannel strategy aimed at maximizing spending per visit.

In that sense, rather than a rebound of mass retail, what is emerging is a market growing cautiously, with models adaptable to each location. For investors, the challenge is no longer betting on size, but on the relevance of the concept and its ability to take root in its surroundings. If executed well, this strategy could not only weather uncertainty but also capture the projected 7.2% compound annual growth in commercial real estate value between 2025 and 2033.

For more information on Mexico’s commercial real estate market, visit SiiLA Market Analytics or contact us at contacto@siila.com.mx.

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¹Estimate based on the average size (53,000 m²) of FIBRA Danhos shopping centers in Mexico City, calculated from the latest quarterly report and from statements by Salvador Daniel Kabbaz Zaga, CEO and chairman of the REIT, who said, “in terms of size, [it will be] very similar to those in Mexico City.”

²Estimate based on the 5.6 million m² of gross leasable area reported by REITs in Q2 2025, compared to a national estimate of 25.4 million m² in shopping centers larger than 10,000 m², equivalent to 22% of the total.