Beyond Building: The New Test for the Industrial Market

In Bajío, where vacancy remains below 4%, balance persists because demand continues absorbing space at rates close to its historical average—just over 500,000 square meters per quarter—even as supply begins to reactivate, which has also helped sustain rents above $6 per square meter, with a 10% compound annual growth rate over the past two years.

That balance does not eliminate pressure, but it does change its source. In Bajío, vacancy is not rising due to structural weakness in demand, but rather due to isolated turnover movements. So far in 2026, six square meters have been absorbed for every square meter released, although a small number of large move-outs—concentrated among just a few companies—have been enough to temporarily expand available inventory and reduce the impact of absorption on availability. It is no coincidence that in Aguascalientes and San Luis Potosí, where there were virtually no significant move-outs, the vacancy rate declined.

In the Greater Mexico City area, by contrast, pressure stems from a more sustained imbalance between supply and absorption. Vacancy—now at 4.6%—has risen for four consecutive quarters, in an environment where new inventory has consistently exceeded absorption. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, more than 260,000 square meters came online, double what the market was able to absorb, while the pace of space released diluted much of that absorption's effect, reflecting a more subdued start to the year than the average seen over the previous twelve months.

Although much of that pressure stems from the repositioning of a single tenant—Mercado Libre, which vacated nearly 50,000 square meters at CTT—the structural pattern shows supply growing beyond the market's immediate absorption capacity. Even so, rents are approaching $11 per square meter, with a compound annual growth rate of nearly 12%, signaling that the market still has the ability to sustain high price levels in its most sought-after corridors.

In the Northeast, pressure reflects a longer accumulation cycle. Since late 2023, vacancy—except in Reynosa—has been rising and now sits slightly above 5%, in a context where new inventory has begun to surpass net absorption, gradually expanding the volume of vacant space.

In fact, across the region, five square meters are absorbed for every square meter released, reinforcing turnover's role as one of the main drivers of vacancy. Even so, rents remain above $7 per square meter, with a compound annual growth rate near 8%, a sign that the region still retains structurally solid demand.

That effect is most visible in Monterrey, which accounts for roughly 80% of Northeast market activity, and where, since 2023, large cyclical move-outs—such as those by AGP Glass and LII United Products—have temporarily amplified pressure on available inventory.

In the Northwest, the adjustment has been more contained. The vacancy rate remains slightly below 8%, in an environment where supply rebounded from the previous quarter and was concentrated mainly in Tijuana, but remains at moderate levels, while demand has stayed virtually flat year over year, and cumulative supply contracted 8% from the prior year. That pattern also reflects a recovery in net absorption driven by lower tenant turnover: in the region, three square meters are occupied for every square meter released.

Within that balance, Tijuana once again proves decisive, as its net absorption has offset newly delivered inventory, slowing the upward trend in regional vacancy. In that same vein, rents remain above $7.60 per square meter, with a compound annual growth rate of just 2% over the past two years, reflecting a market without pronounced upward price pressure.

To follow these trends more closely and monitor regional industrial market performance, explore SiiLA Market Analytics or contact us at contacto@siila.com.mx.