Costco is opening four stores in Mexico this year: one in Hidalgo, another in Tamaulipas, and two more —already under construction— in Jalisco and Nuevo León. They’re part of the 29 global store openings the company projects for 2025. And as Costco’s map continues to expand, each new dot places more demand on a logistics network that’s efficient —but not unlimited. So, if growth holds, how long until Mexico needs more distribution centers to move what it sells?

Much of Costco’s operations in Mexico rely on a 43,200-square-meter distribution center (DC) in Hidalgo. At its inauguration in 2009, then-country director Jaime González Solana explained that the network also depended on two U.S. warehouses: one in Laredo and another in Los Angeles. That same day, he added something else: the Hidalgo facility had a 20-year lifespan.

That period ends in 2029. And if that number was more than ceremonial, the logistics clock has already started counting down. Because when a facility reaches the end of its physical, financial, or strategic cycle, several paths emerge: complete renovation, replacement with a modern facility, relocation, or even capitalizing on the land’s appreciation. Everything will depend on whether that node is still functional for the network, whether it supports today’s automation, and whether it still meets standards that have changed since then.

The decision is still open. Costco could take the lead and expand its footprint with new DCs, or it could double down on last-mile logistics with smaller warehouses closer to the consumer. For now, there’s no obligation. But logistics cycles —like real estate assets— don’t last forever.

It’s happened before. In 2020, the company acquired Innovel Solutions, a logistics firm primarily operating in the U.S. and Puerto Rico. That deal added 11 fulfillment centers and over 100 last-mile cross-dock facilities to a network that, until then, had only 24 depots.

In the decade before that purchase —from 2010 to 2020— Costco opened 133 stores in the U.S. and just seven in Mexico. From 2020 to 2025, it is expected to have opened at least 68 locations in the U.S. and six in Mexico, with more to come before the decade is over. If that pace continues, growth could match that of the previous decennium —and then, Costco’s industrial expansion in Mexico wouldn’t be a possibility, but a matter of time.

But where?

Today, Costco has 41 stores in Mexico: 14 in the north, 12 in the center, 10 in the Bajío region, and just five in the south. Over nearly three decades, the company has quadrupled its presence in the north, especially in Nuevo León and Baja California. It has also doubled its footprint in the center and the south, while growth in the Bajío has been more modest.

If commercial expansion follows that same territorial logic, it wouldn’t be far-fetched to think the next logistics step will take place in the north, center, or Bajío. Not because it’s imminent, but because it would be consistent with Costco’s trajectory.

Among those three regions, the north holds a structural advantage: it captures much of the nearshoring boom, has direct access to the U.S. border, and boasts the country’s most robust industrial infrastructure. However, the center also has its strengths: it’s better connected to the rest of the country, offers last-mile logistics advantages, and was selected by Costco to house its only national distribution center. And the Bajío —though less central to Costco’s operations— has emerged as a high-value logistics hub, with modern industrial parks and lower operating costs than its neighbors.

If one had to make an informed bet, the center and the Bajío would be the most sensible options: the former because it already concentrates infrastructure, and the latter for its operational efficiency, scalability, and strategic location between central and northern Mexico.

For now, there are no public signs that Costco is scouting for new land to build another DC in Mexico. But if the network decides to grow, there’s fertile ground to do it. And when that happens, we’ll know where to look. At SiiLA, we already are.

Learn more at SiiLA REsource or contact us at contacto@siila.com.mx.