Mexico is no longer just a workshop. Today, foreign companies no longer come only to assemble; they come to design, decide, and develop. It is on that threshold—between manufacturing and manufacturing intelligence—where Daikin, a global HVAC systems manufacturer, now stands.

Recently, the company expanded its corporate presence in Mexico City with almost 500 additional sqm of office space, bringing its national total to more than 2,500 sqm—not counting areas in plants, training centers, and service facilities. That administrative move accompanied its industrial expansion in the first nine months of 2025: around 43,600 sqm absorbed between Tijuana and San Luis Potosí, which increased its operating footprint in the country by nearly 20%.

However, what we see today is only the middle stretch of a larger sequence. A year earlier, in 2024, Daikin set up its research and development offices in San Luis Potosí. And for 2026, it is projecting more than 1,100 million pesos (around $61 million) in new production lines, on top of the almost 5,800 million invested since 2023.

Behind that sequence, there is more than expansion: there is recognition. For Daikin, Mexico is not just a production site; it is a strategic node for sustaining and scaling its supply chain in North America. That is why, even though the company expects global U.S. tariffs to shave about 47 billion yen (around 303 million dollars) off its operating profit in the fiscal year ending in the first quarter of 2026, it is confident that products manufactured in Mexico will be exempt as they meet USMCA rules-of-origin requirements. And that single exception not only cushions the blow; it turns the country into an operational safe haven where design, production and supply connect directly with its primary market—the United States.

Where's the strategy anchored?

There is a saying that geopolitics begins where you place a stone, and that geography does not speak, but always decides. And in Daikin's case, which according to SiiLA concentrates 85% of its corporate area in Mexico City and 80% of its industrial footprint in San Luis Potosí, that geographic distribution implies administrative centralization in the country's economic core, and production concentration in a logistics corridor that links the Bajío with the United States.

What Daikin's map suggests at the company level, the numbers confirm at the sector level.

In the HVAC market, San Luis Potosí ranks third nationwide in industrial space dedicated to the sector—behind only Monterrey and Ciudad Juárez—and fifth in number of companies, after Monterrey, Ciudad Juárez, Querétaro, and Tijuana. All this in a context where 73% of the sector's infrastructure is located in northern Mexico and 25% in the Bajío, a distribution that is anything but random: it follows the logic of supply to the United States.

However, what for Daikin is expansion, for the sector as a whole is a reshuffle.

SiiLA Market Analytics shows that only one out of every 25 HVAC firms increased its industrial footprint in the last year, with growth of barely 3%. That pace suggests the end of a cycle of accelerated capital deployment in a sector where six out of every seven companies are foreign, and where regulatory and trade uncertainty is tempering expansion plans.

Data from Mexico's Economy Secretary confirms this phase shift: between 2015-2019 and 2020-2024, average annual FDI—adjusted for inflation—fell 76%. Part of that adjustment reflects typical maturation dynamics. Only in 2023-2024, several companies repatriated earnings or divested assets, moves that are common when initial projects complete their cycle and the market enters a consolidation phase, with more selective capital and higher return requirements.

In that environment, Daikin's position is neither accidental nor contrarian: it is a signal of what is coming. While sector capital slows, the company advances where it makes the most sense to move forward: at the point that lowers costs, minimizes risk, and preserves market access. Producing in Mexico offsets part of the tariff impact, and concentrating operations in the same corridor limits logistical and commercial exposure. In that sense, Mexico does not function as a bridge, but as insurance.

For more analysis and data on the commercial real estate market, visit SiiLA REsource or write to us at contacto@siila.com.mx.