FIBRA Danhos’ Industrial Shift in a Slowing CTT

As the largest industrial submarket in the Mexico City metro area slows without rents weakening or vacancy rising meaningfully, FIBRA Danhos is doubling its exposure. This is not momentum-driven growth, but a strategic decision about where to concentrate risk.

Between 2026 and 2027, the trust will deliver four industrial buildings in the CTT submarket—two in Danhos Palomas and two in Danhos Industrial Edomex III—totaling roughly 280,000 square meters. That figure alone exceeds the industrial space Danhos currently has in operation, which stood at 260,000 square meters at year-end 2025. As a result, the industrial segment's share of the total portfolio will increase from about 22% to an estimated range of 33% to 36%.

The company's bet is not a shot in the dark. In the CTT, new inventory has slowed at a 14% compound annual rate over the past three years, while absorption has decelerated at roughly twice that pace (-29%). In consequence, the vacancy rate has edged up gradually but remains below 3%, even as rents have climbed nearly 80% since 2022.

In that environment, the industrial sector serves as the trust's financial anchor: less explosive growth, greater stability in cash flow. That became evident in 2025, when Danhos' year-over-year revenue growth (11.8%) and NOI growth (12.9%) were driven primarily by industrial assets.

This is not about projections, but about cash flows already stabilized in the same region where expansion is now concentrated. A comparison within the company's portfolio clarifies the decision: while its office properties show vacancy near 23% and its retail segment hovers around 6%, its industrial segment maintains full occupancy and leases with an average remaining term of 9.1 years, supporting the heavier exposure to the asset with greater operating certainty.

The underlying question is whether the CTT can absorb an additional 280,000 square meters as absorption cools. The answer, however, is not binary, as part of the trust's expansion is structured to limit that exposure.

At Danhos Palomas, one development is speculative—41% complete—and the other is build-to-suit, with 14% progress. At Danhos Industrial Edomex III, the buildings are being developed in a 50/50 joint venture with an unrelated third party, are pre-leased, and are roughly 11% complete. A meaningful portion of the growth, therefore, rests on contracts already signed.

The expansion is not sudden. In 2024, Danhos delivered its first industrial building at Cuautitlán I, totaling more than 100,000 square meters; in 2025, it added another 100,000 square meters at that same park and more than 50,000 square meters at Danhos Palomas. Risk, nonetheless, has not disappeared; it has shifted. It is no longer about immediate vacancy, but about concentrating exposure in a cycle that demands pricing discipline and measured absorption. So far, however, the CTT has shown slower momentum but no erosion in fundamentals. And Danhos' bet is that this distinction will hold.

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