From Retail as a Mass Bet to Capital Discipline: 2026 Outlook

The adjustment reflects a combination of factors that altered the rationale behind the traditional format.

On one hand, higher capital costs since 2021 have increased the financial burden of large-scale projects and favored more contained developments, mixed-use formats or phased execution, with greater emphasis on recurring cash flows. At the same time, the composition of spending has shifted, and today, while services consumption exceeds its pre-pandemic level by more than 11%, goods consumption is up just 4%, reducing marginal growth in categories that historically supported large anchor-driven formats.

On the other hand, e-commerce penetration has doubled since 2018 and is projected to approach 18% of total retail sales by 2026, shifting a growing share of comparable goods consumption toward channels that do not require physical display and thus reducing the need to expand retail space at the same pace as spending.

The transformation is visible in the type of projects that now dominate the pipeline.

Over the past decade, only 18% of developments corresponded to regional or super-regional formats, with average sizes close to 80,000 square meters, while the average size of new inventory declined at a compound annual rate of nearly 7%. As a result, the new standard is now projects of around 25,000 square meters—primarily community, lifestyle and power centers—which together account for nearly 73% of retail properties.

Beyond the shift in scale, what is changing is how consumption growth translates—or ceases to translate—into physical square footage, as the enclosed mall no longer drives retail expansion but instead operates within a broader environment where services, proximity, and digitalization reshape investment logic.

In this context, the shopping center ceases to function as an aspirational symbol of consumption growth and takes on a role closer to neighborhood infrastructure. Profitability, therefore, depends less on the magnitude of the project and more on the stability of the cash flows it captures: supermarkets, health services, everyday experiences, and essential retail.

That transition is also reflected in the internal configuration of shopping centers. According to SiiLA, although space occupied by traditional entertainment and consumer goods anchors continues to represent the largest share of total area—rising from 62% to 65% since the pre-pandemic period—the number of spaces dedicated to services, convenience and experiences increased its share from 32% to 35%. In other words, while surface area remains concentrated in traditional retail, the tenant mix is gradually tilting toward more everyday and recurring activities.

In that sense, a vacancy rate below 7%—across both large and mid-sized malls—indicates that the market is operating near its efficiency threshold and absorbed the post-pandemic transition without visible dislocations. If consumption continues to grow and occupancy remains stable while physical expansion slows, the next phase will not be defined by the construction of more complexes, but by the repositioning, integration and efficiency of existing assets.

The structural consequence is that sector performance will depend less on aggregate consumption growth and more on the specific quality of each asset: location, tenant mix, financial structure and adaptability, widening the dispersion of results within the sector.

For more information and detailed analysis of retail performance in Mexico, consult SiiLA Market Analytics or write to us at contacto@siila.com.mx.