The Future of Retail: Less Inventory, Stronger Tenants

After a period of rapid post-pandemic recovery, Mexico’s retail market has entered its most complex phase: stabilization.

The sharp rebounds of 2021–2022 are behind us, and since 2023 the indicators show a gradual adjustment that confirms the frenzy has run its course. What is emerging now is not a downturn, but a new kind of growth driven by stable occupancy, higher prices and a broader base of businesses.

In this new phase, demand follows a different logic. Instead of relying on significant expansions, growth has come from tenant retention and reshuffling.

Between 2021 and 2024, net absorption grew at a compound annual rate of 25%, compared with just 2% for gross absorption. That gap shows that Mexican retail has not advanced through the massive entry of new operators, but through the consolidation of those already in place: more chains expanded their footprint, more businesses stayed and churn declined.

However, in the first nine months of 2025, both gross and net absorption fell 11% and 7% year over year. This correction—after a period of gains—does not point to operational deterioration, since net absorption remains positive, tenant turnover is still contained and the occupancy rate—supported in large part by the almost zero delivery of new inventory during the year—has held steady at around 93%.

That combination of factors underpins market confidence and shifts negotiating power toward landlords, who have been able to raise rents without losing momentum.

In just the last year, leading shopping centers across the country posted an 8% increase in average asking rent, reaching roughly 560 pesos (less than $31) per square meter per month. Over that same period, business activity did not contract: for every 10 stores that closed, nearly 12 opened, meaning 15% more openings than closures.

By sector, the strongest growth came from public and government services—which tripled their footprint—followed by personal services, financial services, food and logistics, with gains of 2% to 4%. The rest remained flat, except for education, which declined 12%. At the company level, the concentration is even clearer: a dozen firms accounted for three-quarters of total growth, most of them consumer brands.