Borrowed Competitiveness: Gas as the Key and Challenge for Mexico’s Industrial Future

Mexico is the world’s seventh-largest consumer of natural gas. Each day, it uses enough to inflate a balloon 800 meters in diameter¹—about the size of the Burj Khalifa, the tallest building on the planet. From above, the impact is visible: methane powers factories, fuels turbines, and defines the country’s industrial future.

Although natural gas is essential for the operation of many industries, its extraction accounts for less than 0.1% of the national GDP. The reason is simple: Mexico doesn’t profit from selling gas—it profits from using it. That’s because most of its supply (72%) is imported from the United States, and its value lies not in the rent it yields, but in the goods and services it helps produce. Without gas, sectors that make up nearly 10% of the GDP²—and occupy at least a third of the country’s industrial space—would grind to a halt: food, packaging, electricity generation, pharmaceuticals, paper, petrochemicals, siderurgy and textiles rely on it to cook, heat, melt, dry, sterilize, or transform.

Natural gas doesn’t just feed industrial processes—it also shapes where factories are built, how much they cost to run, and whether they’re worth keeping. In energy-intensive sectors, reliable and affordable access—as is the case in northern Mexico and the Bajío region—is a competitive edge over other parts of Latin America or Asia, where liquefied gas is costlier and less stable. According to Global Petrol Prices, industrial gas rates in Mexico rank among the 15 lowest in the world, alongside countries like Algeria, Argentina, Azerbaijan, the U.S., Egypt, Iran, Russia, and Turkey.

Nationally, the main gas entry points are located in Chihuahua, Nuevo León, Sonora, Tamaulipas, and Veracruz. At the same time, domestic production relies entirely on the country’s east side—particularly Campeche, Chiapas, Tabasco, Tamaulipas, and Veracruz.

Access to this energy flow is built into many industrial parks as part of the territorial package, along with water, electricity, and road connectivity. In Toluca 2000 Industrial Park, installing an internal gas distribution network took nearly two decades, and today it allows dozens of companies—such as Italika, Mercedes-Benz, and Quala—to maintain steady supply and cut gas consumption by up to 60%, translating into savings of up to 30% in production costs. Further north in Saltillo, Alianza Derramadero includes 16-inch pipelines integrated into a platform that also offers electricity, water, and fiber optics. In both cases, gas isn’t an add-on—it’s a competitive foundation.

So, if the price is low and supply steady, why is foreign gas a risk? That’s the crux of the issue: the price is competitive, yes, but the competitiveness isn’t structural; it’s borrowed.

Since 2009, domestic gas production has been in steady decline, while demand from the electricity sector—which uses 60% of the total—keeps rising, along with demand from other sectors: oil (22%), industry (17%), and to a lesser extent, residential and commercial users (1%). In a country that needs more gas each year but produces less, the threat isn’t theoretical: proven reserves barely cover six years of output, and more than half of Mexico’s gas is associated with oil—meaning it isn’t even extracted by design, but as a byproduct of another energy bet. In this context, competitiveness isn’t an asset—it’s a liability.

In light of this, the question isn’t whether Mexico can keep relying on U.S. gas, but how long it can sustain a borrowed competitiveness without losing energy sovereignty. The dilemma isn’t technical—it’s strategic. Reversing the decline in domestic production will take more than drilling wells; it means crafting an energy policy with industrial vision—one that diversifies the energy mix with renewables, strengthens reserves, expands infrastructure, and channels gas not just where it’s needed, but where it multiplies value. Because if the country doesn’t decide soon, the shortage will choose for it—and it won’t just shut down factories. It will shut down the future.

To learn more about the factors shaping Mexico’s industrial real estate market, visit SiiLA REsource or contact us at contacto@siila.com.mx.

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¹ The estimate is based on a daily consumption of approximately 9.3 billion cubic feet of natural gas, equal to 263 million cubic meters (1 ft³ = 0.0283168 m³). Assuming this volume is contained within a sphere, the resulting diameter would be about 800 meters, using the formula: V = (4/3)·π·r³ ⇒ r = ³√(3V / 4π).

² Based on INEGI data (Q2 2025). SCIAN codes 22, 311, 312, 3131, 3133, 3149, 322, 324, 3251, 3252, 3254, 3261, 331 and 332 were added to reflect industrial sectors highly dependent on natural gas. Together, they account for approximately 10.6% of Mexico’s GDP.