In Mexico’s shopping centers, stability is an illusion. Beneath the surface, the door keeps spinning, and every tenant departure says more about retail’s structure than about passing risks.

According to SiiLA, nearly one out of ten tenants gave up space over the past year in the country’s main markets—Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Monterrey. Altogether, they vacated 120,000 square meters of gross leasable area, an amount 2.4 times lower than absorptions in the same period, which ultimately reduced the overall vacancy rate.

Most of that turnover was concentrated in smaller formats, with 85% of the vacated space coming from small shops, kiosks, mini-units, and medium-sized spaces. Another 14% came from large outlets, megastores, and food-court units, and just 1% concerned anchor stores.

That imbalance isn’t explained by business line—food and consumer-goods sectors dominate regardless of store type—but by the corporate scale behind each space: smaller units are typically held by emerging, fragile, or temporary brands. By contrast, large spaces and anchors generally are managed by established chains that, with their financial strength and brand recognition, can support long-term leases. Hence, turnover is inversely related to store size.

Thus, while food franchises such as Donas Montoneras or Las Fresas D’Elli—businesses with ten and five years in operation that run kiosks of 20 to 80 square meters—closed at least eight locations in the past year, giants like Cinépolis, Nutrisa, or Sports World barely trimmed fractions that don’t exceed 1% of their footprint in the country’s leading shopping centers.

The structural difference between small and large formats is also evident in vacancy rates. While large and giant spaces—about 70% of the inventory—operate with an average vacancy rate of just 5%, small, medium, kiosks, and food-court units—comprising 30% of the space—run at nearly 17%. In other words, the financial stability of shopping centers depends on both the weight of established anchors and the fragility of small and mid-size segments, where constant churn defines both risk and vitality.

For developers, this dynamic is not just a challenge but a strategic axis: balancing portfolios that pair the financial security of big brands with the renewal brought by small and emerging tenants. In practice, this means offering flexibility to smaller players—with short-term leases or graduated rents—and certainty to larger ones—with long-term agreements, prime locations, or incentives to invest in the space—all within a diversified tenant mix that sustains profitability over the medium and long term.

The key, looking ahead, is how to contain that churn without losing the dynamism that makes malls attractive. To start scanning the horizon, explore SiiLA Market Analytics or contact us at contacto@siila.com.mx.