Negative Net Absorption in Bajío Retail: Crisis or Mirage?

Retail has a scale problem. At times, the departure of a single store is enough to alter the metrics of an entire market. The result is a sector that can appear weak in aggregate indicators even while maintaining healthy leasing and occupancy dynamics. Guadalajara and Querétaro offered a nearly perfect example of that paradox during the first quarter of 2026.

According to SiiLA data, both markets recorded negative net absorption during the period. While they collectively absorbed more than 10,700 square meters, they also released roughly 16,100 square meters, enough to push the balance into negative territory and slightly increase availability. Yet behind that result was a far more balanced dynamic than absorption metrics suggest: for every company that vacated space, another occupied one.

Despite the balance between move-ins and move-outs, 2.4 square meters were vacated for every square meter absorbed in Querétaro, and 1.3 in Guadalajara. Much of that gap was explained by just three brands, which accounted for between 30% and 70% of the space released during the quarter, including Cinemex and Botánico at La Gourmetería and Punto Sur in Guadalajara, as well as ACE Hardware Corporation at Esfera Querétaro.

Far from being an isolated phenomenon, this pattern has repeated itself frequently. According to SiiLA, over the past three years, fewer than 10% of tenants accounted for between 20% and 50% of the space released in Guadalajara and Querétaro. In other words, just a handful of large-format moves can alter the quarterly results of entire markets without necessarily changing their underlying occupancy dynamics.

This concentration is not unique to these markets. Similar episodes occurred between 2024 and 2025 in Monterrey and Mexico City. More broadly, over the past three years, the country’s leading retail markets recorded negative net absorption in no more than 5 of the 13 quarters analyzed in each market.

The paradox is that Mexican retail does not appear to struggle to attract occupiers, but rather to immediately replace the volume left behind by some of its largest tenants.

For now, the underlying signals remain favorable. Prices continue to trend upward, the national occupancy rate exceeds 93%, and gross demand, while moderating, remains solid against a highly staggered supply environment.

For more information on Mexico’s retail real estate market, visit SiiLA Market Analytics or contact us at contacto@siila.com.mx.