After the Rebound: The Office Market’s Hardest Moment Is Just Beginning

After the historic absorption peak at the start of 2025 and two consecutive quarters with virtually no new supply, the return of new inventory is beginning to redistribute pressures in a context where demand remains firm, though less expansive, and balance increasingly depends on the pace at which recent deliveries and actual absorption can stay in step.

Mexico City embodies that new stage better than any other market. With a vacancy rate near 16.5%, at levels similar to late 2020, the capital received nearly 80,000 square meters of new inventory in the first quarter, yet managed to maintain balance thanks to demand that absorbed more than 90,000 square meters and tenant turnover that, while cutting that gain in half, created no visible distortions in the market. That combination has allowed rents to remain above $23 per square meter, with minimal variation over the last two years, in a market that is still not stabilized, but where the depth of demand has prevented new supply from disrupting its functioning.

What is happening in the capital today responds to a longer sequence. Over the last 12 months, inventory deliveries have been staggered to the point of alternating quarters with no significant additions and periods of larger supply entries, while demand has maintained a structurally solid trajectory: over five years, gross absorption grew at a compound annual rate of 21%, and since 2022 net absorption has returned to positive territory, advancing at a 46% compound annual rate over the last three years. That foundation explains why, in 2026, vacancy will remain under downward pressure, not because of an abrupt rebound in demand, but because of the convergence of more moderate absorption, limited new inventory, and a sharper slowdown in tenant rotation.

Guadalajara, by contrast, shows a tighter version of the same phenomenon. With a vacancy near 9.4%, the lowest since SiiLA began tracking it, the Guadalajara market operates within a much narrower margin, where the room for error is smaller, and every new square meter weighs more heavily on market balance.

That tension was exposed in the first quarter, when just over 3,300 square meters entered the market while net absorption exceeded 5,600 square meters, in a market where tenant turnover has stabilized over the last three years at roughly one square meter vacated for every two occupied.

Guadalajara is thus left in a particularly tight position, as new supply finds little room to accumulate before being absorbed, which once again pushes availability lower. In that context, rents have remained stable and are edging ever closer to $24 per square meter, supported by an underlying trend in which absorption has grown at a 25% compound annual rate over the last five years, against supply averaging barely 8,000 square meters per quarter, almost in line with real demand. As a result, 2026 points to a year of tense stability for Guadalajara, with vacancy still trending downward, though subject to adjustments depending on the pace of the pipeline.

Monterrey completes the picture from a different angle. With vacancy near 10.9%, still at historically low levels, and rents holding around $23 per square meter, the Monterrey market enters 2026 less constrained by immediate demand than by the pace at which its new supply can materialize.

Since late 2024, deliveries have become more staggered, while the pipeline is beginning to fill with large-scale vertical projects—such as Torre Rise, scheduled for 2026-2027—in a scenario where absorption has moderated significantly for more than a year.

That moderation is already beginning to show in the indicators: although absorption has maintained compound annual growth of between 3% and 5% since 2020, gross absorption fell from nearly 8,000 to 5,500 square meters since mid-2025, while net absorption hit its lowest level since late 2021, at just over 1,200 square meters, leaving Monterrey exposed to a contrasting scenario in which, if the pipeline rebounds strongly before absorption does, vacancy could rise temporarily.

Want to scrutinize how this new balance in the office market evolves? Explore SiiLA Market Analytics or contact us at contacto@siila.com.mx.