Post-Pandemic Adaptation: Tenants Diversify in Mexican Malls

Currently, there are approximately 4,400 different tenants in the shopping centers of Mexico's major real estate markets. This number of tenants is about 5% lower than observed before the pandemic. The year 2021 was incredibly challenging, with 12% of tenants leaving. However, the market's ability to diversify and adapt has been instrumental in mitigating the impact. In 2022, although there was no growth, the number of tenants remained almost the same as in 2021. Starting in 2023, the recovery was notable, with annual growth averaging between 3% and 5%, according to SiiLA data.

Over the past year, transportation and logistics, FIRE (finance, insurance, and real estate), entertainment, and personal services (such as fitness, beauty, and health) companies led the absorption of space in shopping centers, with increases of 10%, 8%, 5%, and 4%, respectively. This trend suggests a reconfiguration of the retail market, where demand is shifting towards sectors that offer essential products and services and differentiated experiences. This highlights these segments' ability to attract and retain consumers in a post-pandemic environment that redefined shopping center occupancy dynamics.

Regarding the number of unique tenants, which reflects business diversification in malls, SiiLA Market Analytics data indicates that regional malls and community and lifestyle centers are the most diversified, with an average of 1,500 different tenants. They are followed by super-regional malls and power centers, with an average of 1,000, and outlets far behind with just over 200.

However, over the past year, unique tenants in lifestyle centers and regional malls increased by 3%, followed by community centers and super-regional malls by 2% and power centers by 1%. In contrast, the diversity of tenants in outlets decreased by 6%.

This behavior reflects several key trends in the commercial real estate market.

Lifestyle centers and regional malls are attracting a greater diversity of tenants thanks to their ability to offer differentiated experiences and services adapted to new post-pandemic consumer preferences. These shopping centers offer shopping options, entertainment, and personal services, becoming multifunctional destinations that attract a broad and diverse audience.

On the other hand, outlets have experienced a decrease in tenant diversity, possibly due to their more specialized focus and lower flexibility to quickly adapt to changes in consumer preferences. This implies that due to their more niche business model, outlets face more significant challenges in attracting new tenants looking for greater adaptability and variety of services.

Market segmentation reveals that shopping centers offering comprehensive experiences and varied services tend to attract more tenants and be more diversified. This adaptability is crucial for meeting the sector's new demands and ensuring the long-term profitability of businesses and properties.

Additionally, considering the 3% increase in tenants between the second quarter of 2023 and 2024, in a context where the vacancy rate decreased by 5%, reaching 7.6%, and the gross leasable area of retail barely grew, there is a recovery in demand. This suggests that the effects of tenant departures due to the pandemic are gradually diminishing. At the same time, it reflects that the development of new spaces is adjusting after completing projects that began before the pandemic. In the medium term, it's expected that the projects under development will come to market stabilized, but only as long as tenant demand and diversification continue to increase.

For more information on the performance and development of the commercial real estate market, explore SiiLA REsource or contact us at contacto@siila.com.mx.