In the first half of 2025, Mexico’s industrial vacancy rate jumped nearly 44% compared to the same period last year. But the devil is in the details: while vacancy decreased in the most active markets of the Central and Bajío regions, it climbed steadily across the North, where supply surged over the past three years in response to a demand wave that once seemed unstoppable.

Although the national vacancy rate hovers around 4%, it fell by as much as 20% in Mexico City and its metro area, as well as in Guadalajara, Guanajuato, and Querétaro, settling below 5%. In these markets, absorption handily outpaced new deliveries, and tenant turnover remained lower than in regions where vacancy moved upward.

On the other side of the spectrum are most industrial markets in the North and Bajío, where vacancy rates rose by at least 11%. The sharpest increases were observed in Ciudad Juárez, Monterrey, and Tijuana, where rates nearly doubled over the past year, ranging from 4.9% to 8.6%, depending on the market.

What’s driving the surge? One key factor was the average size of vacancies. These markets were particularly vulnerable to the exit of large tenants, due to both their industrial composition and the scale of occupied spaces. The clearest example was AGP Glass, which vacated 100,000 square meters in Monterrey at the start of 2025, accounting for 17% of the city’s total vacant space. South Shore also exited Ciudad Juárez, freeing up nearly 30,000 square meters.

To put this into perspective: in these three markets, the top 10% of tenants who vacated the most space accounted for almost a third of the total. That proportion is higher than in the rest of the North—where it doesn’t exceed one-fifth—and on par with levels seen in the Central and Bajío regions, with one key difference: Ciudad Juárez, Monterrey, and Tijuana faced a sharper imbalance between supply, demand, and tenant rotation.

What we’re seeing isn’t just a shift in occupancy—it’s the unveiling of a structural fragility that the previous cycle, marked by record absorption and rapid expansion, kept hidden. In a volatile environment shaped by geopolitical tensions and the reconfiguration of global supply chains, what once looked solid is beginning to crack—but that doesn’t mean a crisis is unfolding. That’s why, despite rising vacancy, prices didn’t fall. From Q2 2024 to Q2 2025, average industrial rents in Mexico increased by 13.2%, surpassing $7 per square meter.

Aguascalientes, Saltillo, and Reynosa posted the strongest increases, all above 22%. On the lower end, Tijuana, Mexicali, and Guadalajara saw more modest growth, at or above 3.8%. Only one market moved in the opposite direction: Ciudad Juárez, where rents dropped 4%, landing just below the national average.

Is this an early warning sign? Not yet. So far, what’s happening in Ciudad Juárez looks like a market correction. Pressure began to build in 2023, when a wave of new supply—over a third of it speculative—hit just as absorption started to decline and tenant churn accelerated. That combination—excess supply, weakening demand, and high turnover—drove vacancy up faster than in other Northern markets showing similar symptoms, such as Tijuana, Reynosa, or Mexicali, where supply was more measured or demand steadier. That’s why those markets can still sustain rent growth, while Juárez has already begun to adjust, not due to structural weakness, but as a result of direct competition among developers or a preemptive strategy to boost absorption ahead of the next cycle.

For more data and detailed analysis of each industrial market, visit SiiLA Market Analytics or contact us at contacto@siila.com.mx.