The Record That Does Not Change the Cycle of Mexico’s Automotive Industry

Mexico's automotive industry has just reached a record. But not one that signals a new phase of growth, but one that confirms its limits.

Taken together, official data describe an industry that maintains its scale—4% of GDP and 20% of manufacturing GDP—but with a less dynamic role as a driver of productive activity, as it sustains operations without accelerating at the same pace, occupies space without driving expansion, and grows without changing the structure that constrains it.

In the first quarter of 2026, light vehicle sales surpassed 381,000 units, a historic high for that period, though only 0.7% above the level recorded in 2017, which tempers the reading as a record and points more to a recovery in levels than to a structural shift in its trajectory.

That pattern is confirmed in recent evolution: growth persists—3.7% in the year-to-date quarter—but loses intensity compared to previous years, consistent with a moderate expansion. This loss of momentum is also visible in the annual series: after double-digit growth in 2023 and 2024, growth slowed to 1% in 2025.

Beyond aggregate performance, the composition of the market introduces an additional signal. The recent recovery in sales has not been accompanied by an increase in the share of domestic production, which has remained around one-third of the total, at levels similar to those observed since 2022 and below the near 50% levels recorded a decade ago. Thus, the sector grows, but does not necessarily strengthen its productive base.

In the domestic market, the shift is equally relevant. Over the past two decades, vehicles originating in the Americas have gone from representing about half of sales in Mexico to less than one-fifth, while Asia has increased its share to nearly half of total sales. Europe, meanwhile, has remained relatively stable below one-tenth.

This shift is not only geographic, but structural. As the share of imports increases—especially from Asia—the local industry captures a smaller portion of value within its own production cycle. As a result, sales growth persists, but a growing share of that momentum comes from outside the country, limiting its multiplier effect on production, employment, and industrial occupancy in Mexico.

This reconfiguration is not only evident in the market's origin and composition, but also in how the sector occupies space.

According to SiiLA data, the vehicle and auto parts subindustry, with more than 25 million square meters occupied across the country's main markets, accounts for a quarter of the industrial real estate market, making it the largest sector by far, well above transportation and logistics, the second-largest, with nearly 10 million.

Despite its scale, its growth has been lower than that of the overall industrial market. Over the past five years, the sector's occupied space grew at a compound annual rate of 5%, below the 7% market average, suggesting that even as the main occupier, it has stopped setting the pace of market expansion. This same trend is reflected in its recent trajectory. After the contraction observed between 2020 and 2022, the sector registered an accelerated recovery that peaked in 2023. Since then, growth has shown a progressive slowdown to single-digit rates, consistent with a trajectory that is no longer scaling.

Along the same lines, net absorption shows a clearly cyclical dynamic. Between 2020 and 2024, the indicator expanded to reach levels close to one million square meters, driven by expansions from companies such as Ford, Italika, Kawasaki, Forvia, and Yanfeng Automotive Interiors. However, in 2025, it recorded a contraction of more than 50%, reflecting a slowdown in occupancy.

Thus, while demand persists, its execution increasingly depends on specific investment decisions and no longer responds to the sector's continuous expansion.

To further explore occupancy, absorption, and sector composition in Mexico's industrial market, visit SiiLA Market Analytics or contact us at contacto@siila.com.mx.