The Coffee and the Risk of Expansion in Mexico

Drinking coffee is a minimal act: it takes only a cup and a moment for it to happen. At The Coffee, that logic translates into a precise format. Behind a counter, a barista and, at times, a few tables, an expansion is taking shape that does not depend solely on coffee, but on an operation that works with less space, lower investment, and higher turnover.

Today, it has more than 50 stores in Mexico, most of them (80%) outside shopping centers, in street-level locations, mixed-use buildings, airports, and even coworking spaces, with a presence in WeWork locations in Mexico City. Since entering the country in 2023, the company has opened around 28 stores per year and is preparing to open 28 more, adding 1,300 square meters to a network of approximately 2,500 square meters across 20 states.

That growth responds to a structure in which the space is designed to be functional, but oriented toward turnover rather than prolonged customer dwell time. This, combined with a franchise structure, reduces initial investment and facilitates replication in small spaces ranging from 20 to 70 square meters.

Under these conditions, for most franchisees—except for large-scale operators such as Alsea—a standalone location is more efficient than one in a shopping mall. In malls, costs are tied to captive foot traffic, common-area charges, and fixed schedules; outside malls, rent is paid for a specific location, with greater flexibility and without the burden of sustaining customer dwell time.

That efficiency also defines where it grows. Nearly 70% of its stores are concentrated in the Greater Mexico City area and the Bajío, while another 25% is distributed between the north and south. New openings follow the same pattern: six out of ten are located in central Mexico and the Bajío, followed by the north. This is not dispersion; it is a selection of flows, as The Coffee focuses on markets where density and foot traffic sustain continuous demand, not driven by peaks but by constant circulation.

That pattern is supported by a market that is growing, but not accelerating. In Mexico, the coffee market is valued at close to $2.3 billion and is expanding at an annual rate of 5.6% through 2035. It is stable growth, driven by increased domestic consumption and exports, as well as accessible formats—such as instant coffee—and an increasingly diverse offering.

In that environment, the difference is not in the size of the market. It is in how each unit is executed. The Coffee does not depend on exceptional demand, but on a model that reduces the risk of each opening and turns growth into a result, not a bet. That same approach, however, also limits its exposure to formats where revenue depends on dwell time rather than flow.

The question is no longer where to open. It is under what logic to operate.

More data at SiiLA Market Analytics or via contacto@siila.com.mx.