U.S. Election: How Harris or Trump Could Shape Mexico’s Nearshoring and Industrial Real Estate

Key topics for the next U.S. administration include the USMCA, migration, and security, alongside North American competitiveness—where low wages and limited union conditions in Mexico contrast sharply with those in Canada and the U.S. These aspects directly impact the industrial real estate market, and each candidate’s approach presents both risks and advantages.

The USMCA is of utmost importance for Mexico regarding trade, securing preferential access to its leading trading partner. Harris would likely maintain the agreement in a cooperative framework, pushing for higher production and commercial standards to reinforce Mexico’s image as a reliable partner. However, this could also raise compliance costs, especially around environmental requirements, impacting some companies’ profitability and the balance of supply and demand for industrial space. Trump, on the other hand, may pursue adjustments to the USMCA favoring U.S. industry, such as imposing tariffs on Chinese vehicle and parts companies—a move Harris could also support. While this could prompt many companies to shift production to Mexico to avoid additional costs and boost demand for industrial space, it could also create tensions by positioning Mexico as a direct competitor in the U.S. market. However, Trump’s administration has shown a pragmatic approach, likely preserving regulatory flexibility that would allow American companies to benefit from competitive costs in Mexico, thereby stimulating industrial demand and avoiding trade conflicts.

On migration, both candidates maintain strict stances, though with different approaches. Harris advocates for regional cooperation to reduce migration from Central America, potentially creating a favorable environment for industrial investments in southern Mexico. Nonetheless, the Biden-Harris administration implemented even stricter border measures than those seen under Trump’s 2017-2021 administration, such as the expanded use of Title 42, which allowed for rapid expulsions at the border for public health reasons. Trump, by contrast, proposes a “zero tolerance” policy with measures like reinstating the “Remain in Mexico” program and further militarizing the border. While his approach might heighten perceptions of stability in border areas, his previous administration demonstrated a capacity for commercial negotiations, potentially leaving room for informal agreements that benefit strategic industrial investments reliant on migrant labor in strategic places.

Security is another pivotal issue. Harris advocates for a cooperative security strategy with Mexico to reduce drug and arms trafficking, aimed at strengthening institutions in both countries. This collaboration could enhance the perception of stability in industrial investment zones, especially in the north, where U.S. firms value secure environments. However, a stricter security approach could pressure Mexico to respond more forcefully to internal security challenges, potentially increasing operational costs and short-term violence in some regions. Trump, in contrast, proposes a 'zero tolerance' policy that, while likely to generate diplomatic friction, could also allow for industrial concessions, fostering investments in strategic areas for both countries within a more rigid border security framework.

In sum, both candidates offer distinct perspectives but share a recognition of Mexico as a key regional partner. For the industrial real estate market, nearshoring and the U.S.-Mexico trade relationship will remain decisive factors. With Harris, Mexico could make strides in sustainability and regional cooperation under stricter regulations. With Trump, the country might anticipate greater policy flexibility but a more confrontational style. Today’s election will set the course for bilateral relations and shape the future of industrial investment and stability for Mexico in an increasingly interconnected economic landscape.

For more on the performance and development of Mexico’s industrial real estate market, visit SiiLA REsource or contact us at contacto@siila.com.mx.