How Long Can Mexican Retail Hold On as Consumption Cools?

This slowdown isn’t random; it reflects caution in the face of weakening confidence. In 2025, households view both their own finances and the national economy with skepticism. The Consumer Confidence Index, though still solid, has declined from 2024, dragged down by two factors: expectations that the national economy will worsen within a year and a widespread belief that it’s not a good time to buy durable goods.

That caution doesn’t just show up in surveys—it’s visible. In malls, stores remain open, but steps are slower, fewer, and shorter. According to Progen, foot traffic rose just 3.1% in early 2025, less than half the rate recorded in each quarter of 2024.

Faced with more reserved consumers, brands are adjusting. In the country’s main retail markets—Mexico City, Monterrey, and Guadalajara—occupancy rates now exceed 90% and continue rising. Not due to rapid expansion, but to limited new inventory. And although gross absorption has slowed by 27.6% annually since 2021, it still outpaces move-outs. The result isn’t euphoria, but accuracy: fewer square meters, better chosen.

In this environment, the challenge isn’t to hold on—it’s to get ahead. To build portfolios where each asset not only attracts visits, but sparks them. To reposition aging malls, incorporate public services—healthcare, government offices, education—and partner with brands capable of sustaining both foot traffic and ticket size in frugal times.

This is not the time to diversify by reflex, but to concentrate with purpose: to bet on hybrid formats—convenience, entertainment, logistics—that anchor essential spending when aspirational spending cools. To choose locations that don’t compete on desire but command presence through what they return: time, proximity, a sense of belonging. Because in this stage, those who fail to embed themselves into the functional rhythm of daily life—those who don’t become habit—will end up surrounded by lit storefronts but empty aisles.

For more insights on the performance of the commercial real estate market, visit SiiLA Market Analytics or contact us at contacto@siila.com.mx.