E-commerce—along with export manufacturing—has been one of the key catalysts of Mexico’s industrial boom over the past decade. What began with warehouses, robots, and miles of shelving now faces a less visible but more decisive shift: a fiscal one, with a 2026 Economic Package that raises withholdings for digital platforms and, with it, the cost of operating in the channel that supports a large share of the country’s logistics demand.

Mercado Libre—the tenant with the most significant nationwide expansion in 2025, according to SiiLA—has already warned that higher withholdings—which are provisional payments credited against annual taxes derived from the sale of goods or the provision of services—“represent a disproportionate burden for entrepreneurs operating with thin margins” and could put upward pressure on prices in digital channels.

The adjustment does not create new taxes; it increases the percentage that platforms must withhold on each transaction. Today, a person registered with the Tax Administration Service (SAT) who sells products online sees about 9% withheld on each operation—1% income tax and 8% VAT. Under the new scheme, that withholding would rise to 10.5% for individuals and 12% for companies.

The difference may seem small, but it means less immediate liquidity for sellers. That’s because after each sale, sites like Amazon or Mercado Libre must withhold a larger share of the sales amount and remit it directly to the SAT. As a result, sellers’ available cash flow is reduced in the short term, even though part of that money can be credited or recovered later when they file their return.

Lower liquidity affects not only sellers’ solvency but also the pace of the entire ecosystem. In a market that operates on a rotational basis—encompassing sales, shipping, and restocking—every peso withheld diminishes the capacity to cover daily expenses, including inventory, transportation, payroll, and advertising, particularly for micro, small, and midsize businesses, which can subsequently slow the economic cycle.

To protect margins, many sellers could pass part of the cost to the end consumer, putting upward pressure on prices in digital channels. As a result, an inflation driven by fiscal liquidity could emerge, adding to that generated by monetary policy. However, the greater risk lies in investment. With less cash on hand, many companies could reduce or delay infrastructure expansion, which in turn would slow demand for industrial and last-mile logistics space.

Taxes, however, do not always stall markets, though they do alter their tempo. And in an environment where time is worth as much as space, liquidity is the industry’s invisible fuel. That is why the challenge is not only how much the state collects, but when it does so: collecting earlier may seem efficient, but if it reduces the system’s speed, it also redefines the limits of its growth. The core question is whether the state can collect without slowing an industry—digital commerce—that today sustains a significant share of its productive economy.

Currently, e-commerce in goods and services accounts for roughly 6% of national GDP. And according to SiiLA Market Analytics, the 30 leading e-commerce companies in Mexico occupy nearly 3.7 million square meters of industrial space, equivalent to a quarter of the broader consumer products industry, which also includes sectors such as electronics, home goods, personal care, and fashion, where much of the country’s digital commerce activity is concentrated.

Mexico’s tax strategy is not an outlier. Since 2020, India has required marketplaces to withhold a share of sales, with documented effects on liquidity and working capital; and beginning this year, Turkey applies a 1% withholding on e-commerce payments, prompting operational adjustments and pressure on channel strategies. Comparative evidence is consistent: according to the OECD, withholding schemes can streamline collection, reduce evasion, and strengthen tax control, but they can also create cash-flow pressures if not paired with agile refunds; and according to the World Bank, lowering withholdings improves companies’ cash flow, though it does not necessarily translate into higher investment or growth in the short term.

This implies that the concern of firms like Mercado Libre is legitimate: a large share of Mexico’s digital commerce ecosystem is made up of micro, small, and midsize businesses that could face liquidity strains under higher withholdings. However, the problem is not the measure itself, but what accompanies it. If left on its own—without agile refund mechanisms, access to credit, or formalization incentives—the pressures will be more operational than structural, yet still capable of limiting many companies’ expansion. And in the long run, that would be a shot in the foot for the tax authority itself, because curbing productive growth also shrinks the tax base. To avoid this, it will be essential for the state to complement fiscal policy with tools that keep capital flowing through the productive system. Only then can it collect more without choking the engine that currently sustains the industry.

For more analysis on how economic decisions reshape the real estate market, visit SiiLA REsource or write to contacto@siila.com.mx.