Industrial production slowed over the past year. And today, Mexico isn’t making more, but it’s making better. Its manufacturing muscle—largely export-driven—reflects a strategic reorganization focused on higher-value sectors, global demand, and operational efficiency.

In the first half of 2025, Mexico exported over $300 billion—4% more than in 2024—while maintaining a trade surplus of $1.4 billion. Oil exports dropped nearly 25%, but non-oil exports rose 5.9%, driven by mining and, above all, manufacturing, which grew 6.2% and accounts for nine out of every ten export dollars.

This was not a broad-based boom, but a targeted rise in globally profitable sectors. Exports of capital goods—such as machinery, scientific equipment, and electronics—rose nearly 15%, while consumer and intermediate goods—more tied to domestic demand—flatlined.

This bias matters: in Mexico, only about one-fifth of manufactured output feeds into global value chains. These are complex goods that shape the country’s international competitiveness, such as finished cars, advanced electronics, and specialized machinery. Another two-fifths are exported, but with limited structural impact: processed foods, textiles, and intermediate assemblies. The rest stays home—produced and consumed domestically, including Mexican-made components that may be integrated into exported goods but aren’t recorded as direct exports. In short, Mexico manufactures a lot, but only a fraction turns it into a true export powerhouse.

That fraction, however, is growing. Between 2013 and 2023, the share of high-value manufacturing grew at a compound annual rate of more than 3%, signaling a gradual but sustained shift in the country’s productive orientation. That shift, combined with foreign direct investment, domestic capital, and the industrial sector’s stability, is also driving physical growth in productive infrastructure.

According to SiiLA, manufacturing accounts for half of all industrial real estate space and tenants in Mexico. Between Q2 2024 and Q2 2025, occupied inventory grew by 4.5%, primarily driven by sectors like construction, parcel delivery, petrochemicals, and vehicles and parts, with major leases exceeding 60,000 sqm each from companies like DHL, Hengli, Kohler, and Lizhong Group.

During that period, manufacturing posted positive net absorption, with 3.5 times more move-ins than move-outs. That demand wasn’t euphoric—it was calculated. Because even as industrial output slowed and key sectors like automotive faced drops in markets beyond the U.S., Mexico’s export engine stayed steady, anchored to its largest customer, even amid trade tensions.

By midyear, manufacturing exports hit their fastest pace yet—10.6% in June—and did so without new trade deals or “savior markets,” driven by the same demand that has long shaped its path.

In this context, exporting to the United States remains the strategy—but also the vulnerability. And every square meter absorbed—every leased facility, every redefined use—is an investment that hinges not just on producing more or better, but on keeping open the door that connects the factory to the northern border.

To learn more about the trends shaping the commercial real estate market, visit SiiLA REsource or contact us at contacto@siila.com.mx.