Tijuana and San Diego are not two cities, but a single economy spanning two nations. More than origin and destination, they are part of the same process, where what is produced or decided on one side is assembled or executed on the other. It is no coincidence that more than 70% of shipments from companies in Tijuana are destined for the United States, while half of their inputs come from that same market.

This integration rests on a tangible physical base. Tijuana and San Diego together account for more than 26 million square meters of industrial space. Its backbone is Otay Mesa, one of the main commercial crossings between Mexico and the United States, through which 10% of truck-borne trade flows, the dominant mode of transport.

The logic extends beyond cargo. Assets such as the Cross Border Xpress (CBX), the pedestrian terminal that directly connects Tijuana International Airport with San Diego, do not move goods, but organize the flow of people, capital and decisions that sustain the region’s industrial activity. In operation since December 2015, it has handled nearly 30 million passengers across both sides of the border, with more than 4 million crossings annually, a scale equivalent to roughly one-third of the traffic at Tijuana International Airport.

On March 31, 2026, Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP) issued 10.7 billion pesos (around $600 million) in debt—with strong demand and AAA ratings—to acquire a 25% stake in the CBX and finance its CAPEX. The transaction secures participation in a supply chain that connects regions accounting for between 1% and 2% of their respective countries’ GDP.

This is not taking place amid a new industrial boom, but during a correction phase on both sides of the corridor.

Last year, in both Tijuana and San Diego, demand moderated, the vacancy rate approached or exceeded 7%, and net absorption even turned negative, with rents rising on the Mexican side and declining on the U.S. side. Still, the productive base remains intact and new supply is being phased in more gradually, with a greater share of built-to-suit developments in Mexico and a concentration in nodes such as Otay Mesa in the United States. As a result, across the corridor, indiscriminate expansion is giving way to a gradual shift in value toward assets that sustain operational continuity between production, crossing and consumption.

Seen in this light, GAP’s move into the CBX no longer appears as a peripheral investment, but as a bet on reducing friction, in an environment where competition is cooling, investment is becoming more selective and value is concentrating at the points where operations can be disrupted, precisely where the system’s profitability is at risk.

In that context, not all space competes equally, as the advantage lies with assets capable of sustaining continuity. The border, then, ceases to be a line separating markets and becomes the zone where value is organized. And if value is organized there, the advantage is no longer about proximity, but about positioning within that critical point, with assets that can continue operating even when the crossing becomes slow, uncertain or congested.

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