From the Persian Gulf to the Northern Border: Is This Mexico’s Moment?

As war in the Middle East threatens to ignite oil markets and global trade routes, Mexico is emerging as the closest and most strategically reliable partner to support U.S. commerce. Why?

While tensions in the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for one in every five barrels of crude—pushed oil prices up by 10% to 15% in June, markets managed to stabilize. But the effects didn’t disappear: logistics costs rose, inflationary pressures returned, and supply chains became more expensive, especially in fossil fuel–dependent economies such as Mexico and the United States. The market shock was immediate, but the deeper impact was this: war reminded us that distance is a risk, and relying on it comes at a price.

In this new landscape, Mexico hasn’t moved. However, its proximity to the world’s largest consumer market, its extensive trade network, labor costs, and growing role in nearshoring have positioned it at the center of the new logistics order. And while it’s not without risks—lags in energy and water infrastructure, regions exposed to high levels of violence, and a fragile institutional environment—its position outweighs even that of Canada, which offers greater stability but higher costs and less short-term operational flexibility.

That logic is already playing out. Today, global giants are preparing more than $30.8 billion in foreign direct investment. In the past year alone, according to SiiLA, over 120 foreign companies—most (56%) from China and the United States—entered the Mexican industrial market. Among them are Shanghai Unison Aluminium, GREE Electric Appliances, and Judd Wire.