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Space vacancy in Mexican shopping centers has decreased for eight consecutive quarters, with a significant reduction of over 35% since 2022. This substantial decrease reflects a stabilization process in the retail real estate market, driven by a more balanced net absorption, a slowdown in adding new inventory, and more efficient and flexible property management. Currently, less than 8% of the gross leasable area (GLA) in shopping centers is vacant. Although this level is moderate and relatively healthy, it has challenges, such as balancing tenant turnover with space vacancy to create new business opportunities without negatively impacting landlords' profitability.
According to a SiiLA analysis, lifestyle centers and regional malls typically have higher occupancy levels than power and community centers, as well as outlets. However, a study of 164 properties in the main retail markets (including Mexico City, Guadalajara, Monterrey, and Querétaro) shows that in the past year, nine properties had zero vacancies, five properties began reporting vacancies, and six were fully occupied. Meanwhile, the remaining 144 properties registered some vacancies, trending up or down.
Of the properties that maintained zero vacancies, all but one are community centers. Four are in Mexico City (Chedraui Calzada del Hueso, City Shops del Valle, Miyana Ampliación, and Park Plaza Shops), three in Monterrey (Citadina Concordia, HEB Cerradas de Anáhuac, and HEB Guadalupe Juárez), and two in Guadalajara (Plaza Altea Río Nilo, Soriana Híper Estadio).
Among those that started reporting vacancies, increasing from zero to 1% or 2%, three are regional malls and two are lifestyle centers, located in Mexico City (Encuentro Fortuna, Parque Delta, and Plaza Carso) and Guadalajara (Andares and Gran Terraza Oblatos).
Of the properties that were fully occupied and had vacancy rates not exceeding 3%, most are community centers located in Mexico City (Miyana, Plaza Insurgentes, and Portal San Ángel), Guadalajara (Gran Patio Patria and Patio La Cima), and Querétaro (Plaza del Parque).
The trend toward full occupancy reflects improved efficiency in leasing and marketing strategies, with landlords adopting more proactive and personalized approaches to attract and retain tenants. This indicates increasing sophistication in retail real estate asset management, where the ability to adapt spaces and leases to changing market needs is crucial for maintaining low vacancy levels.
Meanwhile, full occupancy in some properties suggests sustained demand for the convenience and accessibility they offer in highly competitive areas, while the reappearance of vacancies in certain regional malls and lifestyle centers, though marginal and not exceeding 2%, may indicate a slight tenant mix adjustment. This is in response to a commercial offer aligned with current consumption trends.
The 144 properties that registered some degree of vacancy, either trending up or down, represent a crucial analysis area to understand market dynamics. This vacancy variation may be related to various factors, such as lease restructuring, space renovations to attract new tenants, fluctuations in demand for certain types of commerce, and even local dynamics of each market and property type.
In Mexico City, for example, variability in vacancy rates is mainly associated with large-scale shopping centers, where operating costs and competition drive tenant turnover. In the past year, retail space vacancies in this region increased by an average of five percentage points and decreased by an average of two. This indicates an active market dynamic, where adapting to changing demands and optimizing tenant mix is critical to maintaining competitiveness and ensuring long-term sustainability.
In Guadalajara, retail space vacancies increased by an average of three percentage points and decreased by five. This regional performance indicates an adaptation to market demands, promoting greater diversity in commercial offerings to attract a varied clientele. This approach is crucial to competing with other large regional shopping centers and maintaining a steady flow of visitors.
In Monterrey, retail space vacancies increased by around six percentage points and decreased by an average of one. This variability can be attributed to a competitive market where shopping centers continually adjust their offerings to stay relevant. The significant vacancy increase suggests a notable entry of new tenants, while the low average reduction indicates efficient management that helps minimize exposure time.
Finally, in Querétaro, retail space vacancies increased by an average of one percentage point and decreased by an average of two points. This market shows relative stability, with more minor adjustments in vacancies compared to other regions. The slight variability suggests that shopping centers in Querétaro are focused on maintaining consistent occupancy, with modest strategic changes reflecting a less competitive environment and management focused on long-term stability.
Variations in the vacancy rate of Mexico's shopping centers reflect the sector's remarkable adaptability to demand fluctuations and its ability to optimize space occupancy. The overall trend toward stabilization reflects a gradual recovery after the pandemic and a dynamic where malls with diversified offerings but adjusted to local lifestyles better capture consumers.
For a more comprehensive understanding of the development and performance of the commercial real estate market, explore SiiLA REsource. This platform provides detailed insights and data that can empower your decision-making process. For further inquiries, please contact us at contacto@siila.com.mx.











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